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Prediction Method
Based on point scoring related to multiple aspects including:
1) Lunar and solar motions
2) Probability of Recurrence
3) Location and Strength of Recent Events
4) Weather (less influence mainly)
Based on point scoring related to multiple aspects including:
1) Lunar and solar motions
2) Probability of Recurrence
3) Location and Strength of Recent Events
4) Weather (less influence mainly)
Scope
1) Target Predictions for Magnitude 6+
2) Target Areas - Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan
3) Based on Event Data from 1973 - Present
4) Selected Study Area - as above but including Pacific Regions from 90E to -170W and from -60S to +60N
NB - not yet including China, Thailand, Burma, Malaysia
1) Target Predictions for Magnitude 6+
2) Target Areas - Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan
3) Based on Event Data from 1973 - Present
4) Selected Study Area - as above but including Pacific Regions from 90E to -170W and from -60S to +60N
NB - not yet including China, Thailand, Burma, Malaysia
Probability of Recurrence
1) Based on statistical analysis of events M6+ over last 38 years
2) Data analyzed and graphs drawn for events within 1 degree of selected locations
3) Running average of last 6 events used
4) Probability of recurrence within 1 month evaluated
1) Based on statistical analysis of events M6+ over last 38 years
2) Data analyzed and graphs drawn for events within 1 degree of selected locations
3) Running average of last 6 events used
4) Probability of recurrence within 1 month evaluated
Lunar and Solar Influence
1) Authors Research - based on historic statistical analysis over last 38 years of data
2) Number and Timing of Events - affected by phase of the moon
3) It is believed that declination of lunar orbit plays important role
4) Historic data has allowed construction of lunar phase calendar - see Lunar Calendar
5) Relative acceleration of sum and moon allow hourly forecast
1) Authors Research - based on historic statistical analysis over last 38 years of data
2) Number and Timing of Events - affected by phase of the moon
3) It is believed that declination of lunar orbit plays important role
4) Historic data has allowed construction of lunar phase calendar - see Lunar Calendar
5) Relative acceleration of sum and moon allow hourly forecast
Location and Strength of Events
1) The author has analyzed significant repetition of sequential event transfer to specific locations
2) Analysis carried out for single M6+ event transfer based on location only
3) Analysis carried out for preceding 5 events of M6+ and M5+ takes account of relative strengths
1) The author has analyzed significant repetition of sequential event transfer to specific locations
2) Analysis carried out for single M6+ event transfer based on location only
3) Analysis carried out for preceding 5 events of M6+ and M5+ takes account of relative strengths
Weather
1) The author has analyzed numerous weather patterns related to events of M6+
2) It is contended that under certain conditions differential pressure across plate boundaries will play a significant role in triggering a quake
3) Typical situation occurs when MSLP isobars run parallel to subduction line with high pressure on subducting side
1) The author has analyzed numerous weather patterns related to events of M6+
2) It is contended that under certain conditions differential pressure across plate boundaries will play a significant role in triggering a quake
3) Typical situation occurs when MSLP isobars run parallel to subduction line with high pressure on subducting side